How the estimate works
The calculator follows Form 1040 for tax year 2026, the return you file in early 2027:
- Adjusted gross income – wages, self-employment profit (minus half of the self-employment tax), interest, dividends and capital gains.
- Deductions – the larger of the 2026 standard deduction and your itemized deductions, then the new deductions for qualified overtime, tips and seniors that apply whether or not you itemize.
- Tax – the 2026 rate schedules (10% to 37%), with long-term gains and qualified dividends taxed at 0%, 15% or 20%.
- Credits – the child tax credit ($2,200 per child) and the $500 credit for other dependents.
- Refund or balance due – withholding, estimated payments and the refundable part of the child credit, minus the total tax.
Worked example: married, $100,000, two children
Married filing jointly, $100,000 wages, two children, $7,000 withheld
Taxable income is $100,000 − $32,200 = $67,800. Tax before credits is $7,640; the child tax credit removes $4,400, leaving $3,240. With $7,000 withheld, the refund is $3,760.
- Total federal tax
- $3,240.00
- Taxable income
- $67,800
- Marginal / effective rate
- 12% / 3.2%
Your 2026 return
- Adjusted gross income (AGI)
- $100,000.00
- Standard deduction
- −$32,200.00
- Taxable income
- $67,800.00
- Income tax after child / dependent credits
- $3,240.00
- Total tax
- $3,240.00
- Withholding and estimated payments
- $7,000.00
- Refund
- $3,760.00
2026 standard deduction
| Filing status | Standard deduction | Extra if 65+ or blind (each) |
|---|---|---|
| Single / married filing separately | $16,100 | $2,050 |
| Married filing jointly | $32,200 | $1,650 |
| Head of household | $24,150 | $2,050 |
Taxpayers aged 65 or older can also take the new $6,000 senior deduction (per person) for 2025–2028. It shrinks by 6% of income above $75,000 ($150,000 joint).
Why refunds differ from year to year
Withholding is set by the W-4 you gave your employer and the IRS percentage-method tables, which assume you earn the same every pay period all year. A raise, a second job, a bonus or a change in children all move the final tax away from what was withheld. If you owed last year, the paycheck calculator shows what each paycheck withholds; adding an extra amount on W-4 Step 4(c) closes the gap.
What is not included
The earned income tax credit, education and clean-energy credits, the qualified business income deduction, alternative minimum tax and state income tax. If any of these apply, your refund will be different – the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator and tax software handle them.